VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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OSCARS|EMMYS|GRAMMYS|TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct 24, 2024): Adrien Brody is no stranger to the Oscars, having taken home best actor for 2002’s Holocaust war drama “The Pianist,” where at 29, he became the youngest winner in the category’s history. But while Brody has maintained steady work in Hollywood with roles in “King Kong,” “Midnight in Paris,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” his post-Oscar career hasn’t consistently generated the kind of buzz that makes him an obvious contender for a second Academy Award. That should change with his emotionally charged portrayal of László Tóth.
With this performance, Brody has the goods to join an elite club of nine other actors with multiple Best Actor Oscars — a cadre of performers including Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Marlon Brando. What’s more, there’s a prevailing sentiment among some Oscar pundits that if Brody hadn’t already won, he’d be the undeniable frontrunner for the prize this year. While Brody’s competition is formidable with contenders such as Ralph Fiennes in “Conclave” and Colman Domingo in “Sing Sing,” history shows that being a previous winner doesn’t hurt one’s chances of winning another Oscar. In fact, since 2009, 54 people have won their second (or third, fourth, even fifth) Oscars across all categories. Nine are for acting awards: Daniel Day-Lewis, Meryl Streep, Anthony Hopkins, Frances McDormand, Mahershala Ali, Brad Pitt, Emma Stone, Christoph Waltz and Renée Zellweger are among the repeat recipients.
I believe an actor must have one of two “unofficial” traits to win a second Oscar: it has to be better than their first (which this one is) and/or it has to be “undeniable” (meaning it sweeps the critics’ awards and television prizes). That could be the case with Brody.
Fresh off his first Oscar nomination for his portrayal of civil rights leader Bayard Rustin in “Rustin” (2023), Colman Domingo seems poised for a return to the Academy Awards, this time for his powerful performance in Greg Kwedar’s beautiful drama “Sing Sing.” His portrayal of Divine G, an inmate involved in the theater productions at the Sing Sing Correctional Facility, showcases his mastery of emotional depth, further cementing his reputation as one of the most compelling actors of his generation. It also helps that he’s one of the best dressers in town.
In “Sing Sing,” Domingo’s performance is rooted in a profound character exploration. He brings a quiet intensity to Divine G, blending the harsh realities of prison life. The role allows Domingo to display a range of emotions — vulnerability, resilience, and hope — all qualities the Actor’s Branch loves to recognize.
But could Domingo emerge as a serious contender after a summer release?
Noteworthy, if nominated, Domingo would be the first Afro-Latino in any acting category to be nominated a second time by the Academy. He would be only the fourth Latino nominated overall to nab a second nom after José Ferrer, Anthony Quinn, and Benicio del Toro. He would also tie Ferrer and Quinn as the most nominated Latino and best actor, with two.
Read the new updates and rankings below.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on theVarietyAwards Circuit:Oscars.
The 97thOscarswill be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the performer could be campaigned in lead or supporting, and/or the film could open in 2025.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 2 Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (A24) 3 Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 4 Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24) 5 Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24) 7 Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 8 John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 9 Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) 10 Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) 12 Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 13 Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment) 14 Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24) 15 Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24) 16 Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 17 Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures) 18 Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24) 19 Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix) 20 Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 22 Ian McKellen — “The Critic” (Greenwich Entertainment) 23 André Holland — “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions) 24 Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) 25 Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) 26 Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 27 Keith Kupferer — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films) 28 Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 29 Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate) 30 Michael Pitt — “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films) Eligible Performers (Best Actor)
This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
- Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- Michael Keaton — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Robbie Williams — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- Jason Schwartzman — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- Barry Keoghan — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Franz Rogowski — “Bird” (Mubi) **
- Channing Tatum — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Elliott Heffernan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Lakieth Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist” (A24)
- Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Ian McKellen — “The Critic” (Greenwich Entertainment)
- Michael Pitt — “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films)
- Hugh Jackman — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios) **
- Ryan Reynolds — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Sebastian Stan — “A Different Man” (A24)
- Izaac Wang — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- Timothée Chalamet — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- George MacKay — “The End” (Neon) **
- Michael Shannon — “The End” (Neon) **
- Hitoshi Omika — “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
- André Holland — “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions)
- Ryan Gosling — “The Fall Guy” (Universal Pictures)
- Keith Kupferer — “Ghostlight” (IFC Films)
- Paul Mescal — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Michael Keaton — “Goodrich” (Ketchup Entertainment)
- Tom Hanks — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Hugh Grant — “Heretic” (A24)
- Glen Powell — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- Kevin Costner — “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- Justice Smith — “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “The Idea of You” (Amazon Studios)
- René Pérez — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- Casey Affleck — “The Instigators” (Apple Original Films) **
- Matt Damon — “The Instigators” (Apple Original Films) **
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Nicholas Hoult — “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.)
- Jesse Plemons — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Adam Driver — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Dev Patel — “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
- Ethan Herisse — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Nicholas Hoult — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Richard Gere — “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)
- Anthony Hopkins — “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- Jude Law — “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- Jeremy Piven — “The Performance” (GVN Releasing)
- John David Washington — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- Daniel Craig — “Queer” (A24)
- Joseph Quinn — “A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Jesse Eisenberg — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kauchani Bratt — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- Gabriel LaBelle — “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- Missagh Zareh — “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
- Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing” (A24)
- Cillian Murphy — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Jim Carrey — “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- Glen Powell — “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
- Jharrel Jerome — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- Tom Hardy — “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
- Blake Cameron Jones — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Gian Knight Ramirez — “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Andrew Garfield — “We Live in Time” (A24)
- Daniel Zovatto — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix) **
More Information (Oscars: Best Actor)
2024 category winner: Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
