Tariff Trouble: Trump’s approvals tank in new poll (2025)

President Donald Trump’s trade war, the roiling markets and the vanishing retirement savings that have come with it have taken a toll on his popularity. More Americans now say they disapprove of his job performance than those who say they approve of it.

Forty-four percent of respondents to a new UMass poll gave a thumbs up to the Republican after just about three months in office, compared to 51% who disapprove.

The poll of 1,000 nationwide respondents, conducted April 4 through April 9, found that while Trump remains strong among his base, wide swaths of Americans are casting a jaundiced eye at his management of the economy and other issues.

The poll had a margin of error of 3.7%.

“Three months into his second administration, the honeymoon might be over for President Donald Trump,” UMass Polling Director Tatishe Nteta said in a statement.

Even with recent retreats and pauses, Trump “has gone ‘all-in’ on an aggressive tariff policy that he believes will jumpstart the American economy and bring high-paying jobs and lower costs back to the nation,” Nteta said. “It remains to be seen if his bet will pay off, but if it doesn’t, he and the Republican Party will likely face an electorate poised for change in 2026 and beyond.”

One big problem: Among those who said they disapprove of Trump, 44% said they “strongly disapprove,” of his job performance, UMass pollsters found.

“Our current hyper-polarization has rendered presidential approval numbers a fundamentally different measure than they once were,” UMass political science professor Alexander Theodoridis said.

“Partisans are very reluctant to express approval for a president of the other party and abandon one from their own party, so approval numbers fluctuate within a historically narrow band. Gone are the days when both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush saw their approval numbers rise to the 90% range,” Theodoridis continued.

“Donald Trump is perhaps this polarized era’s most polarizing figure, and his approval numbers reflect this. Even so, presidential approval numbers in the low-40s and disapproval at over 50% should prompt concern among Team Trump,” Theodoridis said.

Respondents also strongly rejected the idea that Trump might circumvent the U.S. Constitution and seek a third term in office.

Just 1 in 5 respondents said they approved of the idea, according to the poll. However, some Republicans are “third-term curious,” with 40% saying they supported it, compared to 36% who actively opposed it.

With the margin of error, that’s a statistical washout.

The economy

One issue that’s supposed to be Trump’s wheelhouse — the economy — is his most significant liability in the new poll.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents (62%) said they don’t think Trump is handling inflation well, while nearly 6 in 10 (58%) said he was mishandling trade policy, according to the poll. Barely half (53%) said the same thing about jobs.

Nationwide, the inflation rate stood at 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February, data showed. While inflation slowed for some energy sources (gasoline and fuel oil), it accelerated for natural gas and food, data showed.

The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, while hourly wages also rose, data showed.

Even so, those numbers are “very bad news for [Trump],” UMass political science professor Jesse Rhodes said.

“Arguably, the belief that [former President] Joe Biden and the Democrats were mishandling the economy doomed the presidential aspirations of [former Vice President] Kamala Harris in 2024. Unless Trump and the Republicans turn things around quickly, they are likely to face similar retribution in upcoming elections,” Rhodes said.

Two Democratic lawmakers, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., have seized on public dissatisfaction with the economy and translated it into huge crowds on their “Fighting Oligarchy” nationwide tour.

One strength: Immigration

One part of Trump’s presidency that is among his most polarizing remains one of his strongest. And that’s his management of immigration issues, including the controversial deportations of a Maryland resident and a Tufts University graduate student.

Half of all respondents (50%) said they approved of Trump’s handling of immigration issues, compared to 46% who said they disapproved. And given the poll’s 3.7% margin of error, even that one is a squeaker.

With his bellicose language toward Canada and repeated mentions of annexing Greenland and retaking the Panama Canal, Trump has paid a public opinion price.

Barely a third of respondents (39%) approved of his handling of foreign affairs, while only 36% said they approved of his handling of civil rights issues, according to the poll.

As a result, “Trump’s policy agenda is in serious trouble,” Rhodes said.

“The problem is simple: Trump’s approach to policy is unpopular. A majority of Americans believes he is not handling inflation, trade, civil rights or foreign affairs well, and a near majority feels the same about Trump’s handling of jobs,” Rhodes continued.

“Disapproval of Trump’s performance on economic issues is particularly dangerous for the president. Trump may have big plans for the economy, but Americans aren’t willing to wait years — or suffer a recession — for these to materialize,” Rhodes said.

If there’s a bright spot for Trump and his fellow Republicans, it’s that Democrats still have significant ground to make up: Barely 3 in 10 (29%) approve of their job performance, compared to 41% who say the same thing for the GOP, according to the poll.